Large cities have many benefits. In Philadelphia we have a newspaper that still has a science writer, Faye Flam, with a very interesting column. If you do not have a subscription to the Inquirer the column also appears on her blog at http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/evolution/.
The Wednesday, January 4, 2012 blog post analyzed an article by Charles Krauthammer titled “Are We Alone in the Universe”. I will take this opportunity to add my own analysis. Although the topic is outside my area of expertise I can make use of my knowledge of basic science to make some comments.
In reflecting on why we have not heard from other planets Krauthammer considers the dangers of the technology a civilization generates and comments on the importance of politics in our survival. Flam sees this later point as a possible “dig at science”. Possibly Krauthammer is trying to give politicians a pat on the back in this wearying primary season. I recommend Jared Diamond’s book “Guns Germs and Steel” for its important perspective on the role of the natural world in political and economic dominance.
In the post a scenario is proposed, Flam writes:
“It’s also possible that we earthlings are among the first technological civilizations in the galaxy. It took a generation or two of star formation to create all the carbon and other heavy elements. We don’t know how likely it is for intelligent, technological life to emerge, and we don’t know whether 4.5 billion years is relatively fast or slow.”
I will consider two other scenarios, neither is any more valid but in science we do consider alternate analyses of problems.
First, as a possibly humorous analysis, maybe we are one of the last civilizations to develop technology. All the more advanced civilizations may have grown tired of space spam and our messages are being quarantined in some extraterrestrial trash bin.
Some points that might be more significant can be made by considering a second scenario in which development on different planets occurs at a very similar pace. In this case we need to realize that the distance between the planets will play an important role in communication.
If my numbers are correct the recently discovered planet Kepler 22b is about 620 light years away. Any information we might receive today from possible inhabitants of that planet would be from about 1392 CE - most certainly old news. If we send a message today it will get to them until about 2632 CE – again most certainly old news when it is received. The point is that our ability to communicate over long distances is recent enough that our messages may not have reached other worlds and unless some other beings have been broadcasting for quite some time we have not had the opportunity to receive their messages.
For movie fans, I found the old broadcasting signals being bounced back to earth an interesting aspect of the plot development in the 1997 movie “Contact”.
Both the article and the blog post refer to recent developments in science. Because science is a discipline that is continuously progressing, recent does not mean complete. It is the incomplete parts that give us much to think about.